INSIDE INSIGHT

Inside Insights offers limited access to Acuti Associates senior analysis of the geopolitical and strategic developments shaping decisions across a variety of topics.

The Ukraine Endgame in 2026? 

It has been a frantic and at times fundamentally surreal few weeks in terms of the United States and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the remainder of this year may be even more frenetic.

In terms of the de facto border, this is close to stalemate. It is difficult to see how Russia can achieve much more than marginal advances, while it is even harder to envisage how Ukraine can retake this terrain through arms.

Any plausible path for the United States to broker an arrangement is in 2026. If not, beyond then, long-term semi-stalemate is the probable outcome.

The direct and indirect impact of this conflict has been huge and under appreciated. It has distorted global inflation, triggered a transformative reassessment of energy supplies, led to contorted supply lines and prompted a redistribution of public spending towards defence.

The extent to which these developments continue to influence economic life depends crucially on whether semi-stalemate ends or not.

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